Pami Dua : Research

 

 

 

Refereed Journal Articles

  • Inter-linkages between USD-INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR Exchange Rate Markets and the Impact of RBI Intervention (with R. Suri),” Journal of Emerging Market Finance,  Forthcoming.

  • “Macro Stress Testing and Resilience Assessment of Indian Banking’’ (with H. Kapur),  Journal of Policy Modeling, 2018, 40, 452-475.
  • “Exchange Rate and Central Bank Intervention in India: An Empirical Analysis” (with R. Suri), The Journal of Developing Areas, 2017, 52, 127-143.
  • “Macro Stress Testing of Indian Bank Groups” (with H. Kapur), Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2017, 11, 375–403.
  • “Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods,” Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2017, 15, 209-226.
  • “Financial Crises and Dynamic Linkages across International Stock and Currency Markets” (with D. Tuteja), Economic Modelling, 2016, 59, 249-261.
  • “Linkages between Indian and US Financial Markets: Impact of Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Debt Crisis” (with D. Tuteja), Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 2016, 9, 217-240.
  • “Cycle Phase Dynamics: A Comparison of Economic Indicator Analysis and Markov Switching Methods” (with V. Sharma), Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2015/2, 111-137.
  • “Impact of Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis on China and India” (with D. Tuteja), Singapore Economic Review, Forthcoming, DOI: 10.1142/S021759081550099X.
  • “Determinants of Yields on Government Securities in India” (with N. Raje), Margin – The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2014, 8, 375-400.
  • “Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from India” (with R. Garg), The Journal of Developing Areas, 2014, 49, 133-155.
  •  “Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis” (with R. Garg), World Development, 2014, 59, 16-28.
  • “Weather Shocks and Agricultural Commodity Prices in India” (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Climate Change Economics, 2013, 4.
  • “Capital Flows and Exchange Rates in India: An Empirical Investigation” (with P. Sen), Indian Economic Review, 2013, XLVIII, 189-220.
  • “Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillover: Evidence across Indian Manufacturing Industries” (with S.R. Behera and B. Goldar), Singapore Economic Review, 2012, 57, 2.
  • “Synchronization of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies” (with A. Banerji), Margin – The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2010, 4, 197-223.

  • Determination of Inflation in an Open Economy Phillips Curve Framework: The Case of Developed and Developing Asian Countries” (with U. Gaur), Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 2010, 3, 33-51.
  • “Analysis of Consumers’ Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2008, 37, 335-350.
  • “Forecasting Interest Rates in India” (with N. Raje and S. Sahoo), Margin – The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2008, 2, 1-41.
  •  “India’s Insulation from the East Asian Crisis: An Analysis” (with A. Sinha), Singapore Economic Review, 2007, 52, 419-443.
  •  “Predicting Indian Business Cycles: Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors,” Margin – The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2007, 1, 249-265.
  • “Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models” (with A. Banerji and S.M. Miller), Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 25, 415-437.
  • “Interest Rate Determination in India: Domestic and External Factors” (with B.L. Pandit), Journal of Policy Modeling, 2002, 24, 853-875.
  • “Indicator Approach to Business Cycle Analysis: The Case of India” (with A. Banerji), Special Issue on Analysis of Business Cycles, Indian Economic Review, 2001, XXXVI, 55-78.
  • “Effects of Monetary Variables on Real Output: Sensitivity Analysis” (with H. Ahmed), Applied Economics Letters, 2001, 8, 65-69.
  • “The Impact of Financial and Fiscal Variables on Economic Growth: The Case of India and S. Korea” (with A. I. Rashid and D. Salvatore), International Economic Journal,   2000, 14, 133-149.
  • “An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy” (with A. Banerji), Journal of Quantitative Economics, 1999, 15, 177-201.
  • “Presence of Persistence in Industrial Production: The Case of India” (with T. Mishra), Indian Economic Review, 1999, XXXIV, 23-38.
  • “Estimating the Public’s Social Preference Function Between Inflation and Unemployment Using Survey Data: The Survey Research Center Versus Gallup” (with D.J. Smyth and S.W. Taylor), Empirical Economics, 1999, 24, 361-372.
  • “Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework” (with S.M. Miller and D.J. Smyth), Journal of Real Estate, Finance and Economics, 1999, 18, 191-205.
  • “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Activity in India” (with A.I. Rashid), Indian Economic Review, 1998, XXXIII, 153-168.
  • “Improving Macroeconomic Forecasts: The Role of Consumer Confidence” (with R. Batchelor), International Journal of Forecasting, 1998, 14, 71-81.
  • “Public Perceptions of the Relative Seriousness of Inflation and Unemployment in the U.S.” (with D.J. Smyth), Applied Economics Letters, 1997, 4, 49-52.
  • “Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity Using Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut” (with S.M. Miller), Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 15, 509-526.
  • “Foreign Capital Inflows: The Experience of Emerging Markets in Asia” (with A.I. Rashid), Journal of Asian Business, 1996, 12, 31-45.
  • “Velocity Instability: A Monetary or Real Phenomenon?” (with P. Basu), Applied Economics Letters, 1996, 3, 581-585.
  • “Forecasting Connecticut Home Sales in a BVAR Framework Using Coincident and Leading Indexes” (with S.M. Miller), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1996, 13, 219-235.
  • “Empirical Measures of Inflation Uncertainty: A Cautionary Note” (with R. Batchelor), Applied Economics, 1996, 28, 333-341.
  • “The Behavior of Velocity and Nominal Interest Rates in a Cash‑in‑Advance Model” (with P. Basu), Journal of Macroeconomics, 1996, 18, 463-478.
  • “Structural Change in the Relationship Between Presidential Popularity and Inflation and  Unemployment: The Nixon and Ford Presidencies” (with D.J. Smyth and S.W. Taylor), Applied Economics Letters, 1995, 2, 305-307.
  • “Forecasting U.S. Home Sales Using BVAR Models and Survey Data on Households’ Buying Attitudes for Homes” (with D.J. Smyth), Journal of Forecasting, 1995, 14, 167-180.
  • “A BVAR Model for the Connecticut Economy” (with S.C. Ray), Journal of Forecasting, 1995, 14, 217-227.
  • “Long-Run Equilibrium Between Budget Deficits and Long-Term Interest Rates” (with H.K. Arora), International Advances in Economic Research, 1995, 1, 23-31.
  • “Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts” (with R. Batchelor), Management Science, 1995, 41, 68-75.
  • “Public Perceptions of Macroeconomic Policy During the Bush Presidency” (with D.J. Smyth and S. Washburn Taylor), Southern Economic Journal, 1995, 61, 775-782.
  • “Voters and Macroeconomics: Are They Forward-Looking or Backward Looking?” (with D.J. Smyth and S. W. Taylor), Public Choice, 1994, 78, 283‑293.
  • “Survey Evidence on Excessive Public Pessimism about the Future Behavior of Unemployment” (with D.J. Smyth), Public Opinion Quarterly, 1993, 57, 566‑574.
  • “Interest Rates, Government Purchases, and Budget Deficits: A Forward Looking Model,” Public Finance Quarterly, 1993, 21, 470‑478.
  • “Survey vs ARCH  Measures of  Inflation Uncertainty” (with R. Batchelor), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1993, 55, 341‑353.
  • “Budget Deficits, Domestic Investment, and Trade Deficits” (with H. K. Arora), Contemporary Policy Issues, 1993, 11, 29‑44.
  • “Survey Expectations in the Time Series Consumption Function” (with R. Batchelor), Review of Economics and Statistics, 1992, LXXIV, 598‑606.
  • “ARIMA Models of the Price Level: An Assessment of the Multilevel Adaptive Learning Process in the U.S.” (with S.C. Ray), Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 11, 507‑516.
  • “Conservatism and Consensus‑Seeking in Economic Forecasting” (with R. Batchelor), Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 11, 169‑181.
  • “Blue Chip Rationality Tests” (with R. Batchelor), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1991, 23, 692‑705.
  • “Survey Evidence on the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Journal of Economics and Business, 1991, 43, 133‑142.
  •  “Structural Change in the United States’ Social Preference Function: 1953‑1988” (with D.J. Smyth and S. W. Taylor) Applied Economics, 1991, 23, 763‑768.
  • “Misery and President Ford: Macroeconomics and Presidential Popularity” (with D.J. Smyth and S. Washburn Taylor), Journal of Economics, 1990, XV1, 124‑128.
  • “Product Differentiation in the Economic Forecasting Industry” (with R. Batchelor), International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue on Macroeconomic Forecasting, 1990, 6, 311‑316.
  • “Forecaster Ideology, Forecasting Technique, and the Accuracy of Economic Forecasts” (with R. Batchelor), International Journal of Forecasting, 1990, 6, 3‑10.
  •  “Social Preferences, Inflation, Unemployment, and Political Business Cycles: Econometric Evidence for the Reagan Presidency” (with D.J. Smyth and S. W. Taylor), Southern Economic Journal, 1989, 56, 336‑348.
  • “Do Expected Budget Deficits Affect Household Expectations of Interest Rates?” (with H.K. Arora), Journal of Macroeconomics, 1989, 11, 551‑562.
  • “Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment” (with R. Batchelor), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1989, 21, 250‑257.
  • “The Public’s Indifference Map between Inflation and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence for the Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan Presidencies” (with D.J. Smyth), Public Choice, 1989, 60, 71‑85.
  • “The Natural Rate of Inflation in the U.S” (with D.J. Smyth), Economic Analysis and Policy, 1988, 18, 191‑198.
  • “Public Perceptions of Macroeconomic Policy: An Econometric Analysis of the Reagan Presidency” (with D.J. Smyth), Review of Economics and Statistics, 1988, LXX, 357‑361.
  • “Multiperiod Forecasts of Interest Rates,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1988, 6, 381‑384.
  • “A Policy Reaction Function for Nominal Interest Rates in the U.K.: 1972Q3‑1982Q4,” Bulletin of Economic Research, 1988, 40, 57‑71.
  • “The Accuracy and Rationality of U.K. Inflation Expectations: Some Quantitative Evidence” (with R. Batchelor), Applied Economics, 1987, 19, 819‑828.
  • “Inflation, Unemployment and the Median Voter” (with D.J. Smyth), Economics Letters, 1986, 22, 181‑186.

Book Chapters

  • “Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Debt Crisis: Impact on Exports of China and India” (with D. Tuteja) in Policies for Sustaining High Growth Rates in India, ed., P. Agrawal, Cambridge University Press, 2017.
  • “Forecasting Indian Macroeconomic Variables Using Medium Scale VAR Models” (with G.C. Aye and R. Gupta) in Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications, ed. S.K. Upadhyay, Chapman Hall/CRC Press, 2015.
  • “Business Cycles in India” (with A. Banerji), in The New Oxford Companion to Economics in India, 2nd ed., K. Basu, Oxford University Press, 2012.
  • “Determinants of Weekly Yields on Government Securities in India” (with N. Raje), in Select Issues in Macroeconomics: A Quantitative Approach, ed., B. Kamaiah and S.V. Seshaiah, Forthcoming.
  •  “Capital Flow Volatility and Exchange Rates: The Case of India” (with P. Sen), Asian Development Bank, 2009.
  • “India’s Insulation from the East Asian Crisis: An Analysis” (with A. Sinha), in Exchange Rate Systems and Policies in Asia, ed., Paul S.L. Yip, World Scientific Publishing, 2008.
  • “Business Cycles in India” (with A. Banerji), in Oxford Companion to Economics in India, ed., K. Basu, Oxford University Press, 2007.
  • “Forecasting Interest Rates Using Univariate and Multivariate Models” (with N. Raje and S. Sahoo), in Macroeconomics and Welfare, ed., B.B. Bhattacharya and A. Mitra, Academic Foundation, 2005.
  • “Money Demand in the Indian Economy: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach” (with S. Subramaniam), in Macroeconomics and Welfare, ed., B.B. Bhattacharya and A. Mitra, Academic Foundation, 2005.
  • “Economic Indicator Approach and Sectoral Analysis: Predicting Cycles in Growth of Indian Exports” (with A. Banerji), in Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, ed., P. Dua, Oxford University Press, 2004.
  • “Monitoring and Predicting Business and Growth Rate Cycles in the Indian Economy” (with A.        Banerji), in Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, ed., P. Dua, Oxford University Press, 2004.
  • “Coincident Index, Business Cycles and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India” (with A. Banerji), in Macroeconomic Modelling, ed., K. Krishnamurty and V. Pandit, Oxford University Press, 2004.
  • “Interest Rate Modelling and Forecasting in India” (with N. Raje and S. Sahoo), in Economic Developments in India, ed., R. Kapila and U. Kapila, 2004.
  • “Introduction” in Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, ed., P. Dua, Oxford University Press, 2004.
  • “Introduction” (with R. Batchelor), in Financial Forecasting: Stock Market Forecasting, ed., R. Batchelor and P. Dua, Edward Elgar Press, 2003.
  • “A Leading Index for India’s Exports” (with A. Banerji), in Economic Developments in India, ed., R. Kapila and U. Kapila, 2001.
  • “Trends in Private Investment in Selected Asian Economies” in Trade and Investment in Asia, ed., E.B. Flowers, T.P. Chen, and I. Badawi, 1997, St. John’s University Press, New York, USA.
  • “Macroeconomics and President Reagan: Victory over Inflation” (with D.J. Smyth and S.W. Taylor), in President Reagan and the World ed., E.J. Schmertz, N. Datlof, and A. Ugrinsky, 1997, Greenwood Press, Connecticut, USA.

Books

  • Macroeconometric Applications of the Indian Economy, Forthcoming.
  • Perspectives on Indian Economic Development and Policy in India (with KL Krishna, Pandit, V., and Sundaram, K.), ed., Springer, 2017.
  • Benchmarking for Performance Evaluation (with S.C. Ray and S.C. Kumbhakar), ed. Springer, 2015.
  • Exchange Rate Policy and Modelling in India, (with R. Ranjan), Oxford University Press, 2012.
  • Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, ed., Oxford University Press, 2004.
  • Financial Forecasting: Stock Market Forecasting, (with R. Batchelor), ed., Edward Elgar Press, 2003.
  • Financial Forecasting: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Volatility, (with R. Batchelor), ed., Edward Elgar Press, 2003.

Monographs and Reports

  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2018-19 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model,” October  2018 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Report.
  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2017-18 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model,” October  2017 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Report.
  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2016-17 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model,” October  2016 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Report.
  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2015-16 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model,” October  2015 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Report.
  • “INDIA LINK Economic Outlook 2014-15”, October 2014 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Monograph.
  • “INDIA LINK: Economic Outlook 2014-15, March 2014 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Monograph.
  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2012-13 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model,”     December 2012 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy), Report.
  • “India-LINK: Economic Outlook 2011-12 to 2012-13” February 2012 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Monograph.
  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2011-12 and 2012-13 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model,” May 2011; October 2011 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy), Reports.
  • “India-LINK Macroeconomic Outlook for 2010-11” June 2010 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy), Report.
  • “India-LINK: Economic Outlook 2009-10 to 2010-11” November 2009 (with N.R. Bhanumurthy and L. Kumawat), Monograph.
  • “INDIA LINK: Economic Outlook,” (CDE-DSE Research Team), Reports, 2002 to 2009 as part of UN World Project LINK.
  • Exchange Rate Policy and Modelling in India,” August 2009, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, Development Research Group, 2010.
  • “Interest Rate Modelling and Forecasting in India” (with N. Raje and S. Sahoo), Reserve Bank of India             Development Research Group Study No. 24, 2003.
  • “A Leading Index for India’s Exports,” (with A. Banerji), Development Research Group Study No. 23, Reserve Bank of India, January 2001.

Conference Proceedings

  •  “Monetary Uncertainty and Velocity: An Empirical Investigation” (with P. Basu), Proceedings of the 8th International Congress of the North American Economics and Finance Association, August 1993, 1‑10.
  • “Testing the Rationality of Panel Interest Rate Forecasts” (with R. Batchelor), Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association Meeting, August 1992, 27‑32.
  • “Inflation Uncertainty” (with R. Batchelor), Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association Meeting, August 1990, 422‑427.
  •  “Survey Evidence on the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Proceedings of the 5th International Congress of the North American Economics and Finance Association and the 2nd World Banking & Finance Symposium of the Economics Institute,  July 1989, 1, 407‑432.
  • “ARIMA Models of the Price Level: An Assessment of the Multilevel Adaptive Learning Process in the U.S.” (with S.C. Ray), Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association Meeting, August 1988, 505‑509.

Articles

  • “Macroeconomic Outlook for 2012-13 & 2013-14 based on India-LINK Macroeconometric Model” (with N.R. Bhanumurthy), SBI Monthly Review, December 2012.
  • Monthly Article, October 2000-October 2010 on “Forecasting and Tracking the Indian Economy Using Leading and Coincident Indexes” (with A. Banerji), Business Cycle Monitor, ICICI Research Centre.
  • Monthly Article, May 1996-June 2001 on “Connecticut Leading and Coincident Employment Indexes” (with S.M. Miller), Connecticut Economic Digest.
  • Monthly Article, October 1995-July 1996 on Connecticut Leading and Coincident Employment Indexes” (with S.M. Miller), Connecticut Economic Monitor.
  • “Does Low Inflation Imply High Productivity,” US Cyclical Outlook, Economic Cycle Research Institute, October 2004.
  • “Reading the Tea Leaves: CT Employment Indicators” (with S.M. Miller), The Connecticut Economy: A University of Connecticut Quarterly Review, April 1995, 8.
  • “Charting Connecticut Employment Cycles” (with S.M. Miller), The Connecticut Economy: A University of Connecticut Quarterly Review, July 1994, 3.
  • “The Pain of Unemployment: Old and New Measures Compared” (with S.M. Miller), The Connecticut Economy: A University of Connecticut Quarterly Review, July 1994, 20.
  • “Buying Attitudes: A Leading Indicator of Connecticut Home Purchases” (with J.R. Knight), The Connecticut Economy: A University of Connecticut Quarterly Review, October 1993, 5.
  • “Forecasting Some Key Economic Indicators” (with S.C. Ray), The Connecticut Economy: A University of Connecticut Quarterly Review, July 1993, 9.